Pemodelan Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) pada Kasus Kemiskinan di Jawa Timur
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61132/arjuna.v4i3.3019Keywords:
East Java, Poverty Rate, Queen Contiguity, Spatial Autoregressive, Spillover EffectAbstract
Poverty remains a complex socioeconomic challenge in East Java Province, largely due to strong inter-regional dependencies. This study aims to model poverty rates across 38 regencies/cities in East Java using a Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) approach while identifying its key driving factors. Secondary data were collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and analyzed using a cross-sectional spatial model with a Queen Contiguity weight matrix. The Global Moran’s I test confirms a significant spatial autocorrelation in poverty rates across regions (I = 0.2258, p = 0.0032). Based on Lagrange Multiplier tests, the SAR model performs better than the standard Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model, achieving an R2 of 0.7837 and a lower AIC value (170.72 compared to 174.46 for OLS). Open Unemployment Rate and Per Capita Expenditure significantly affect poverty levels. Furthermore, the spatial autoregressive parameter ( = 0.2944, p-value = 0.0185) confirms a positive spatial spillover effect from neighboring areas. Practically, these findings suggest that local governments should shift toward collaborative cross-border policies rather than handling poverty in isolation.
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